Context

The Segmented World Model is made up of four world narratives: ANXIOUS, EMERGENT, STAGNANT and DIVIDED. At the heart of each is a description as to how the world will respond to the newly emerging Imperium, the three global drivers: increasing population, rising levels of pollution and depleting resources.

The 26 parameters that currently define the Model, will over time, show which of these worlds, our ‘real’ world is moving toward. 

Usually, global change is slow – the world is a very big place – although the ‘fictional’ Model for the Segmented World Book Series reminds us that the path across the Matrix may have some twists and turns.

One such turn, may now be appearing, as the war in Ukraine raises the spectre of a possible confrontation between nuclear-armed Powerblocks. A clear red line has been drawn by the AM, EURO Block that it would respond militarily, were the RUSSO-Block’s actions, violate their territory. 

When red lines are crossed, diplomacy is conditioned by one statement: ‘if you aren’t with us, you are against us’

While the answer of all nations will be important in these circumstances, the decision of the SINO-Block, on which side it stands is of global significance. The escalation of the conflict will have, effectively, created its own red line for the SINO Block – ‘on which side do you stand.

Taking sides is not the style of the SINO-Block. Ambiguity and obfuscation to maximise its options are the norm. But a war with nuclear (and /or maybe biological/chemical weapons is different. A passive response – ‘standing on the line’ – waving  Zhou Enlai’s traditional principal of ‘non-interference’. at the combatants (see Blog dated 13/3/22) will not work. For the RUSSO-Block, such an action (depriving them on the undoubted economic support they receive from the SINO-Block at present and no prospect of arms supplies, might drive them into even greater use of its nuclear arsenal. And from the AM-EURO Blocks perspective, such a stance would leave the prospect of a strengthened SINO-Block post war, unaffected by the conflagration – even thriving – unacceptable.

The SINO-Block may reason that, if by stepping back and not engaging they are labelled as ‘against’, they may as well cross over to the line toward the RUSSO Block. This would be globally transformative decision, creating a bi-polar world with AM,EURO Block on one side and the SINO,RUSSO-Block on the other. Initially ,at least, it would be a world permanently at war; one that focuses its innovative capacity on military struggle and survival rather than meeting the challenge of overcoming the new Imperium of the Three Drivers. A world in which the ‘global brain no longer guides the global hand’, as Elizabeth describes the STAGNANT WORLD in the Path to Phillips Cay. The figure below shows an ‘arctic’ projection of this world in 2050 and more information on the economic, political and social consequences can be found in the ‘real’ section of thesegmentedworld.com website).

THE STAGNANT WORLD 2050

Powerblock structure

The alternative for the SINO-Block is to step the other way, to cooperate with AM, EURO Block to bring an end to the conflict. But this requires a huge leap of strategic leap of imagination on the part of not just the SINO but also the AM-Block leadership . A Yalta-type conference between Biden and Xi, not to carve up the world for one another’s advantage as Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin did, but to set up a new dialogue – a G2 – for creating an albeit, bipolar world, but one that is more tolerant of one another’s difference, that places the pressing need to defeat the Three Global Drivers. above defeating one another. Pie in the sky? Maybe . . . but the alternative STAGNANT World is a very grim – as much for the AM and SINO Blocks as for all other nation state.

The Segmented World Model screams out: Watch carefully, now, the signals from Beijing as Xi ponders his next step.

David Nash

20th March 2022