Context

The Russo-Block’s invasion of the contiguous, non-Powerblock state of Ukraine is a predictable Stagnant or Divided World move, aimed at creating a buffer zone of vassal territories around the Motherland state.

Short term the global consequences of this action – notably in the global disruption and, for a time, the supply of energy and food – are significant. But it is the response of the other Powerblocks that will be most telling giving us a clear reflection as to whether the world is moving in an Emergent or Stagnant direction on the GC-FI Matrix (Please see the website dialogues for a full explanation of Segmented World concepts and terminology)

Here I just focus on the geopolitical consequences.

In the worst case (Stagnant/Divided outcome), the action will provoke a global move toward greater isolation in all the Powerblocks. Any split in solidarity between the AM and Euro Blocks (and their High Utility Staticland compatriots – notably, Japan, Australia and South Africa), would make the likelihood of a Divided – or quite possibly – a Stagnant World outcome more

In this respect it is important to note the shift in political opinion in the AM-Block with a move away by Republicans from the pro-RUSSO-Block stance of the previous President towards a very significant percentage of the polled group regarding the RUSSO-Block leader as ‘unfriendly or an enemy’  (NBC New 24/2/22).

The best outcome, albeit still with significant pain for the invaded territories and a huge increase in global anxiety, could be that it acts as a trigger for a long overdue adjustment in world governance at the UN.

Comparisons are often made between the ‘re-ordering’ that occurred following the 1^st World War – with the political emergence of the US Imperium – and what is happening now in 2020.

There is little doubt, as the diagram shows below, that, pre-pandemic, we entered a period of major change. But assigning this to the emergence of a new RUSSO and/or SINO Block political is a case of mistaking a symptom for a cause. (thesegmentedworld.com dialogues)

The new ‘interregnum’ we are entering is not driven by political jostling but by the critical state of the three global drivers (increasing population, rising levels of pollution – and, reflected in the RUSSO-Block’s confident move – depleting resources).

But even in the worst case, of increased isolation, direct conflict between the Powerblocks is highly unlikely given the nuclear deterrent and the self-inflicted damage to the wealth of the various oligarchs that control the two autocratic Powerblocks.

The Russo-Block move, might bring about greater solidarity between the two democratic Powerblocks and an added reason for European unity and NATO support.

However, the most critical factor may be the position the Sino-Block chooses to take .Already, this morning, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, refused to condemn the Russo-Blocks move, instead criticising the US for ‘hyping’ the prospect of war in Eastern Europe (Bloomberg News 24/2/22). But the Sino-Block is caught in the middle of the crisis with little room for manoeuvre or opportunity.

It looks north to the RUSSO-Block with understandable fear- not just from the nuclear threat but also its growing dependence on the RUSSO Block as a provider of Energy (potentially up to 40% of natural gas by the end of the 2020’s if Power of Siberia 2 goes onstream at full capacity; oil consumption, currently 11% but expected to increase significantly as US exports decline) and Food Products (a ten-fold increase in imports to China since 2009 that is expected to increase significantly in the years to come).

On the other hand AM-Block, Euro-Block and High Utility countries such as Japan, UK, Australia are the customers for over 50% of SINO-Block exports. Any significant collapse in global trade will create severe internal difficulties for the SINO-BLOCK.

Has global interdependency already gone too far to allow the isolationist mentalities of the Divided or Stagnant worlds to emerge? Or will short term gains blind Powerblock leadership from the long-term pain the Stagnant and Divided Worlds will inflict on all.

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David Nash

24/2/22