Context*

The RUSSO-Block has two great advantages over the other four Powerblocks: an active, nuclear-equipped military and a sizeable share of the world’s remaining natural resources.

Figure 1: RUSSO-Block and Global Military Spend (see also Dialogue 3: Figure 17)

Figure 2: Taken from Dialogue 3: Powerblock Characteristics 2019

Rising commodity prices (see Dialogue 4, Scenario Chart 9) will allow the RUSSO-Block to the fully-fund its military in the future without impinging on the % of Government Support (Dialogue 5). But that will require cooperation among the Powerblock leaders to ensure global trade remains robust.

The RUSSO-Block leaders actions, however, are following a low-cooperation route that, at best, leads to a Divided World outcome for all (Dialogue 1 -6).

Figure 3 shows the geopolitical consequences of this in 2050, with expanded Powerblock territories achieved through various forms of contiguous expansion.

Figure 4: Taken from Dialogue 5: Geopolitical Map of the World 2050

A large permanent conflict zone covers the Middle East, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan with a moving battle line between RUSSO-backed and AM/EURO-backed forces. Much of the expansion in the Powerblocks, however, has been achieved passively through closer alliances: e.g. the former FSU ‘stans’ into the RUSSO-Block; Mongolia into the SINO-Block; Canada into the AM-Block and UK into the EURO-Block. In a world that chooses to take a ‘Divided’ path, these agglomerations emerge over time protection from the severe economic and social needs arising from the unmanaged global drivers (see Dialogue 1).

The RUSSO-Block’s actions over the past six months are accelerating the process of agglomeration envisaged in the Model. The Block’s rationale seems to be to take advantage of (1) the perceived weakness of the AM-Block – centred on its divided electorate and the snap withdrawal from Afghanistan (see discussion in Dialogue 6) – and, (2) the over dependency of the EURO-Block on Russian gas as its main source of continuous energy.

This opportunistic, ‘early Divided World-type move’ by the RUSSO-block may secure concessions from the AM and Euro-blocks, that in turn may give the RUSSO-block a foothold for further expansion in the future.

On the other hand, playing the military and resource card so early, may have given the leaders of the AM and EURO-Block, time to manage public opinion and find alternative sources for continuous energy supply.

Francis Nash

30^th January 2022

*(Disclaimer: The Segmented World Perspective is an apolitical commentary on major global events, derived objectively from the ‘real’ Segmented World Model)